Rising and Falling, All Over Again

 US history is a 250-year graph of long and slow degradation, followed by a crisis, followed by some kind of “resolution.”  It is nicely described in the Strauss–Howe generational theory.  I think this is best explained in a chart and this one is pretty complete, if not all that easily interpreted.  The first Anglo-American cycle began in 1493, with the Renaissance reformation and the current cycle began with the Allied defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.  The anticipated outcome, in the chart below, from “WWIII?” is a list of consequences that Americans will not like but will, likely, be powerless to effect.  The high cost of allowing the “Alt-Right” to take the wheel is very likely going to be the end of the United States Empire, at best, and a large collection of irreversible calamities, at worst. 

So far, the “Spring: High” outcomes have been largely positive for Anglo-Americans.  As they say in investment warnings, “Past performance is no indication of future performance.”  We’ve been lucky to this point, but nothing about our system of half-hearted-democracy and a non-representational republic combination of oligarchy and kleptocracy has given the country any sort of moral or ethical advantage.  Our long history of superstition/religion, racism and inequality have done exactly the opposite and it is likely and justified that Anglo-Americans might very well end up at the bottom of the economic and political heap as a result.

So many things about this past dozen years have been labeled “extinction events”: of course climate change is at the top of the list, but the last year’s losses have more specifically been the nation’s ability to contribute to weather prediction, NASA’s capabilities and contributions, medical research, industrial and technological research and development, and national security.  One of the many things that the thick-headed crowd don’t understand is how complicated the world has become.  With human knowledge doubling every year and the volume of doubling every day or less, falling behind today has huge consequences.  The vast difference between the education and capabilities of the average citizen in blue states vs red is stunning.  There are claims that some red states are actually driving education reform. But the data is shaky.   In fact, having lived in several red states, and currently living in a red part of a blue state, I doubt the validity of their education claims.  One of the lessons learned in researching teams is that, in clinical hospital settings (for example), the teams that reported the highest number of “errors” also had the best surgical outcomes.  As you might expect if you’ve ever worked in a team, teams mismanaged by the worst leaders were afraid to report errors and, in those hospital situations, that produced higher patient injury and mortality events.  But they looked good, on paper, until you examined the paper.  Likewise, knowing the political climate of red states, I doubt that anyone down the chain (teachers, for example) are feeling free to be truthful about educational outcomes. 

I’m currently reading Andrew Sorkin’s 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in History – and How It Shattered a Nation  and the similarities to this moment are startling.  From corporate monopolies to direct financial ties between the 1% hyper-rich elites and government officials (elected and not) to a general atmosphere of moral and ethical corruption, top-to-bottom, to the morally ambiguous public tolerating and participating in the corruption, history is repeating itself.  Another way to look at the cyclic curve is the chart below.  It shouldn’t make you feel better or worse, it’s just the same data displayed another way. 

This is all just a numerical way to remind us that “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” and the rest of us are condemned to watch the same stupid shit happen again.  I suspect that, when Americans were in those three earlier periods of “unraveling” and “crisis,” it was hard to cling to hope for a positive future.  It certainly is today.  From every direction, the news and the dependability of the news sources is degrading.  Not only are the stories awful, but the reporters are even worse.